With an overall record of 15-17, Hunter Lyons is back with your weekly gambling picks.
When most people start betting on games I’ve found there are usually two different outcomes that happen, you either: A. Get lucky and start off winning way more than you should, wonder why you didn’t start sooner and think you can finally buy that Winnebago you’ve always had you’re eye on or B. Get unlucky, lose every game and wonder why you didn’t just light your money on fire so you could at least heat your home. Neither trend is usually indicative of the future and should be looked at as only a small sample in a much larger picture. When you begin you’ll go through growing pains, you’ll find where good value picks are and where a trap game might be after a certain amount of time. With that said, it never gets any easier, you just get smarter; at least that’s the plan.
Once I started to really get into sports betting I found myself being more fascinated by everything that went into the making of the lines rather than actually betting it. How Vegas initially sets the line, how it adjusts throughout the week and where you can spot a potential good bet. Unfortunately the only way to do this is from experience and trial and error, something that can become costly after a while when you’re losing every week and “learning”. The internet is littered with people claiming to be handicappers, people that you can purchase picks from because of their self-proclaimed ‘insider knowledge’. Now paying someone money for them to give you information that could technically cost you more money always seemed questionable to me but I suppose it is no different than a financial analyst or planner. For the most part I would say to avoid these sites because I am convinced the internet is full of criminals that prey on the vulnerable like QVC does to elderly women but that’s for you to decide. What I have found are some fairly reliable sources that you can reach out to learn more about the sports betting industry. Because if I am your only source at this point there is a good chance you are considering a second mortgage.
A couple podcasts that I listen to are the ‘BS Report’ w/ Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal that comes out every Tuesday. It’s about an hour long and along with being very informative with only a basic level of betting knowledge needed, I find it very entertaining. Another good podcast is ‘Behind the Bets’, this podcast is done by ESPN the Magazine Editor-in-Chief Chad Millman and covers all things betting for the week. He even has a segment every week with Bob Scucci, who is a long time Sports Casino Director for various casinos throughout Vegas and really paints a great picture of how Vegas sets the lines the way they do.
On twitter there is no shortage of people proclaiming to be sports betting insiders so you need to pick your sources with caution. I’ve found the most reliable to be RJ Bell, Dave Tuley and Steve Fezzik. As well as sport personalities Scott Van Pelt, Colin Cowherd, Darren Rovell (unfortunately) and Simmons regularly chiming in on sports betting topics amongst their other duties at ESPN. Also, if you’re into basketball betting there is no one better than professional sports gambler Haralabos Voulgaris who is famous for his lavish lifestyle and his advanced metrics program ‘Ewing’ that simulates each game 100 times to find the most probable outcome.
With all that said, when researching information make sure to take each piece with a grain of salt. There is no master formula to decide the outcomes of games because so many variables can affect the outcome of a game. The most important thing you can do is collect you own information from all the different sources you have and make an educated decision off that.
Baltimore Ravens @ Miami Dolphins: Saying a team had a nice comeback win against the Jets is usually saved for sarcasm but for the Dolphins it is true. Ryan Tannehill has taken a lot of strides but many, including myself, were left wondering whether he could get it done in the 4th quarter. Through 13 weeks Tannehill ranks 9th in the NFL in total QBR with a 92.1, whereas in the 4th quarter he drops to 75.1 and in 13th place in the league. So for as underwhelming of a win as it was, it was a great sign that Tannehill could come back in the 4th quarter and on the road of all places. I like the Dolphins at home with a Nagata-less Ravens teams. PICK: DOLPHINS -3
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals: Both of these AFC North contenders are coming off a rather uninspiring Week 13 that saw the Bengals edge out a victory against the lowly Bucs, while the Steelers lost to a struggling Saints team at home 35-32, in a score that was nowhere near indicative of the play. Vegas has this line at -3, which is saying that they view these teams as equals and would be a pick em on a neutral field. It pains me to take Red Dalton over Big Ben ever, but with a line that low and the Steelers continual struggles, I have the Bengals covering. PICK: BENGALS -3
Indianapolis Colts @ Cleveland Browns: The QB controversy continues in the Factory of Sadness known as Cleveland, OH. Coming from someone who is currently sitting in an office in Cleveland, the constant gloom that surrounds this city really brings the worst out of you, and I expect the same from Andrew Luck. The Colts are what are called a “Bad-Good Team” meaning their record doesn’t necessarily reflect their play. The Colts blow out bad teams like they should but struggle against a team with any kind of real talent. I expect this trend to continue. The smog of Lake Erie will entrance young Mr. Luck bringing out his worst as the Cleveland D, Josh Gordon and *ENTER QB HERE* lead the Brownies to a W for the Dawg Pound. PICK: BROWNS +3.5
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans: News out of Jacksonville is that Blake Bortles development is way behind what the Jags had expected when they drafted him. Defenses have even commented on his inability to read defenses and adjust accordingly and call audibles. Whether it is just rookie initiation or something he’ll never get is yet to be determined but the third pick might have been a bit premature for him. Don’t expect defensive touchdowns to bail out this Jags team this week. I’d suggest a tease of the over and the Texans. PICK: OVER 37 & TEXANS +.5
New York Giants @ Tennessee Titans: If you were to tell a man 2 maybe 300 years ago that at 13 hours on Sunday that a Giant would be competing against a Titan you would probably spark real interest in that man because of the chance of witnessing a powerful specimen vs. a Greek god. Maybe it would be a hoax, maybe it was sorcery, but either way that is can’t miss stuff. Unfortunately, and only for this reason, it is 2014. And the Giants are led by some kid’s dorky brother and the Titans are an 8th grade football team, not the second order of divine beings. PICK: READ A BOOK
Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints: I know I say this every week but my god is the NFC South an embarrassment. Known for the past 5-7 years as one of the more prolific, high scoring offensive divisions in the league have gone directly down the drain, grabbing Ron Rivera and Mike Smith on the way down. The Panthers, probably the most disappointing team in the league goes to NOLA to face a Saints team that seems to be on its last legs as a high potent offense. Word out of New Orleans is the Saints are planning to take a QB early on in next year’s draft to start to find a replacement for Drew Brees. Brees is only 35 with Peyton and Tom Brady still playing great ball at 38 and 37, respectively. But Brees’ smaller frame will probably prevent him from playing into his 40s like Brady and Manning will likely do. With all that said, I wouldn’t take a team with the Saints defense -10 against a flag football team right now. Look for Cam Newton to finally have a big game because he is certainly due. PICK: PANTHERS +10
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Detroit Lions: I spent my Thanksgiving in Florida this year, it was the first time in almost 10 years that my family hadn’t spent the holiday in Michigan. Although the weather was 40 degrees warmer than I was used to it had many of the familiar aspects of Thanksgiving I’ve grown accustomed to. Family, extended family, family asking if I had a girlfriend and great food but what was most familiar was my hometown football team, the Detroit Lions, going down early against the Bears. This has become an age old tradition in my family. Just as associated with Thanksgiving as good food, the Thanksgiving Day Parade and the Pilgrims giving Native Americans small pox is the Lions losing. Whether it’s another loss on the way to a record setting defeated 0-16 season, Ndamukong Suh stomping on a Packers linemen or the Lions starting their descent after a promising first half, many of my memories on that day include the Lions pissing off my dad and I and causing us to straight drinking Bourbon fair earlier than what is considered socially acceptable. But last week was different. After a rough start, the defense went back to what it was through the first 12 weeks but most of all was the return of Calvin Johnson. Before the game commentators said something to the extent that people were going to have to start referring to him as Calvin again because ‘Megatron’ might be no more. They were wrong. 146 yards, 2 TD’s and a couple of circus catches later it was evident that Megatron was still very much alive. As of now the Lions hold the last Wildcard spot in the NFC so they know every game is important from here on out. A W against a weak Bucs team is a must and they will play as such. PICK: LIONS -10
St. Louis Rams @ Washington Redskins: COLT 45 AND TWO BIG WINS. PICK: WASHINGTON PROFESSIONAL FOOTBALL TEAM +4
New York Jets @ Minnesota Vikings: Last week the Jets actually almost won a football game only throwing 13 passes. THIRTEEN. I get it, I grew up watching Big Ten football but that would’ve put Woody Hayes to sleep it was so boring. Also, I understand that you have to be able to run the ball in order to win, but that amount of passes just goes to show how much faith the Jets have in their 2013 first round pick. For the last 5 years Rex Ryan has been one of the most polarizing coaches in all of sports, most either love em’ or hate em’. I’ve always been fairly indifferent with my opinion changing week to week and depending on when the last time I watched his “LET’S GO EAT A GODDAMN SNACK” clip on YouTube. But to see one of the most outspoken and confident coaches in his press conference last week quiet, defeated and sounding like a man who knows his time is short, kinda made me sad. The NFL needs coaches like that, who give more than one word answers and wears his emotions on his sleeve but it looks as if his time will soon be up in East Rutherford. PICK: VIKINGS -6
Buffalo Bills @ Denver Broncos: The temperature at kickoff in Denver on Sunday is supposed to be a crisp 52 degrees, aka primo Peyton gun slinging weather. In what could be the least anticipated homecoming for a QB coming back to his old team since Peter Burgett returned to Dexter High School, Kyle Orton makes his triumphant return to Mile High Stadium. I have a lot of respect for the Bills D even though I’m fairly certain their Defensive coordinator rotated my tires last week, but I think they keep them in the game. PICK: BILLS +10
Kansas City Chiefs @ Arizona Cardinals: Injuries have absolutely dismantled this Cardinals team. They overcame the preseason injury to Darnell Dockett, who has of recent has been spending his days ordering pizza and live-tweeting jury duty, but the injuries to Carson Palmer and Tyrann Mathieu were the real back breakers which is a shame. I thought this would be the year for a team who has had to spend the last few years watching their Division foes make one NFC Championship game after another. PICK: CHIEFS -1
San Francisco 49ers @ Oakland Raiders: It was reported this week that 5 NFL scouts were asked if they were to start a team today if they would rather have Derek Carr or Colin Kaepernick. All 5 said Carr. Granted in a larger sample size you’d probably get less lopsided results, but that still speaks volumes as to how the league views Kaepernick now. Just last year resident QB expert and Lewis Black look-a-like Ron Jaworski said that Colin Kaepernick could become ‘The best quarterback of all time’. My how things have changed. Kaep clearly has all the physical attributes you would want in a quarterback, but his inconsistency to throw an accurate ball and throw with touch seems to have finally caught up to him. The Raiders may have lost their season, but they’re playing for pride against their Bay Area foe.
(Most write ups would include some kind of link to Jim Harbaugh getting to watch his team for next year but those people are stupid and don’t know what they’re talking about and are meanies and shou..FOR THE LOVE OF GOD JIM PLEASE COME TO ANN ARBOR.) PICK: RAIDERS +8
Seattle Seahawks @ Philadelphia Eagles: Battle of the birds, as of two weeks ago I had all but given up on both these teams. Until last weekend when both put on a show on Thanksgiving and reminded everyone that they are still very much contenders in the NFC. It is no secret that the Eagles have struggled on the road this year but I think this will be a very close game with the Eagles holding off Muscle Wilson and the Hawks. PICK: Eagles -1
New England Patriots @ San Diego Chargers: The Patriots opted to keep going west after their game against the Packers last weekend and have been in San Diego all week. This has allowed their star tight end enough time to hit the beach, take horrible pics with Justin Bieber and come up with the hilariously original idea of taping the #69 to the back of his practice jersey. In the words of my old-roommate, die hard Pats fan and the pride of N. Hampton, New Hampshire, Matthew Bougie, he is without question “The best 15 year old TE in the league.” PICK: PATRIOTS -3.5
Atlanta Falcons @ Green Bay Packers: This is one of those games at the beginning of the year that people looked at the schedule and thought “Oh man, this will be a great MNF game with playoff implications on the line!” Well those people were right about one thing, it does somehow have playoff implications but only because of the abysmal NFC South. The Pack are about what we expected but the Falcons have fallen flat on their face for a second year in a row. With a spread this big it leaves you vulnerable at the end of the game because the Packers will most likely blow them out and Rodgers will play very little in the 4th. Gun to my head I take the Pack to cover. A better bet might be 7:1 odds that a mic’d up Mike Smith is overheard asking Mike McCarthy if he has an open spot as a linebackers coach on their staff next year. PICK: PACKERS -12
After a two-week performance as the guest picker, sadly the era of the Shap Attack has come and gone. But as the famous Nicholas Sparks book and/or the bible says, “With death comes new life.” With that we’re nailing it down with Big Brent Daddy’s: HAMMER’S HOT THURSDAY NIGHT ACTION:
This is a must win for both teams really. The cowboys have lost the last 3 meetings against the bears which ties their longest head-to-head losing streak with the Bears. The game that happened to snap their losing streak was an NFC wild card game at Soldier Field back in 1991. Even though that was 13 years ago with completely different squads, look for the same outcome tonight. The Cowboys are perfect on the road this season and I don’t see Jay Cutler doing anything to stop them. Cowboys suffered an embarrassing loss at home last week against the Eagles and are going to bounce back in the Windy City. Cowboys win BIG. PICK: COWBOYS -4
