After a rough 4-5 outing last week, Hunter Lyons is back with your weekly gambling picks.
I spent this past weekend at my parents’ house in Cincinnati. The plan had been for my dad and I to go to the casino there when I arrived; instead we opted for staying in and watching football. With my dad now interested in what games I was taking we doubled my bets and he backed my action, something I’m sure my mother appreciated when were on our phones the whole time at a five star restaurant. But watching the game kind of reminded me of where my infatuation with gambling started, from my dad.
My dad really isn’t much of a gambler anymore, only making the occasional Vegas trip with an old fraternity brother or when we’re on vacation. But I can honestly say that I’ve never seen him happier than at a craps table in Vegas. He has been all over the world, but if you ask me his favorite place is a craps table at the old Desert Inn in Las Vegas. My dad taught me from a young age about the ins and outs of gambling, whether it were holding me to a friendly bet of ‘I bet you 5 bucks you’ll miss this putt’, getting mad at me for not making the right play in blackjack on a cruise, or giving me pointers before trips to Atlantic City or Vegas, hell, we even had 3 authentic slot machines in my basement growing up, he’s looked out for me because he has been there and done it.
Before my trip to Vegas in May he gave me some great advice about betting in segments. Which essentially allows you to break up your money where you can maximize you’re gaming and not blow your bankroll the first day, what he did not tell me was to not let your friends bring shady girls back to the room when you have an expensive watch in there, but some mistakes you just have to make on your own. But the most important lesson my dad has taught me that applies to all gambling, whether it’s slots, craps, blackjack or betting games, is that when you’re gambling, you’re paying for entertainment. Be responsible for the amount you lose but always know that every kind of betting is slated for you to lose. Don’t go into a session thinking you’re going to hit it big because in all likelihood, you will lose. I’ve spent nights in Vegas and Atlantic City with my best friends where we’ve grinded it out at the table until 4 AM, only to break even and left feeling like we had just hit the lotto, but that’s why you do it, because it’s fun. That’s the same way I view sports betting, sure over a Sunday I lost $X amount of dollars, but was that worth it? That’s the fun it in. With that said, after coming off a sub .500 week last week, let’s see if we can right the ship. Here are your Week 11 picks. Enjoy.
Texans @ Browns: Rookie QB coming into a pretty tough environment in Cleveland. The Dawg pound hasn’t been this excited in years and is chomping at the bit to get a QB with zero career starts come into their house. The Browns are the definition of running back by committee, running West, Tate and Crowell almost evenly last week and all scoring a touchdown against the Bengals. The big question for me is the health of the Texans. Jonathan Joseph, Arian Foster, Brian Cushing and rookie phenom-to-be, Jadaveon Clowney are all listed as questionable. Texans coming off a bye should be healthier than normal but the Browns had a week and a half to prepare. With a line this short, at home, against a rookie quarterback, you have to take the Browns. PICK: Browns -3
Vikings @ Bears: Yikes. I’m not watching this game, and neither should you. You would think after that embarrassing performance against their rivals Green Bay last week the Bears would come out to prove something. But I think this entire team has packed it in for the year. Which really is a shame, because they are probably as talented as any other team in the league, on offense anyways.
Eagles @ Packers: One of the two or three best games of the week. Both teams are coming off big wins on primetime so America as a whole will be high on both teams. After an absolute dismantling of division rival Chicago last week including six first half touchdown passes by Aaron Rodgers, the Packers appear to be hitting on all cylinders on both sides of the both. If the playoffs started today the Pack wouldn’t even make it, fortunately there are seven more games and I’d be surprised if they don’t get in with at least a wild card spot. Vegas ranks Green Bay as the 5th ranked team in the NFL and is largely in part to their high-potent offense and the their terrifying linebacker core of Julius Peppers and Clay Matthews. The Eagles on the other hand have been fighting the injury bug all year but alway seem to find a way to win. Sunday’s game will be a real test for the Eagles new starter Mark Sanchez, whose career looked to be revitalized after a strong showing last week with 332 passing yards, 2 TD’s and most importantly no INT’s. Game time temperatures are expected to reach as low as 9°F which will give us our first true Lambeau ‘Frozen Tundra’ game of the year which I look forward to watching in my heated home. Look for Sanchez to take a step back this week and the Packers to shut down the run. Pick: Packers -6
Seahawks @ Chiefs: Another big game with playoff implications. The Chiefs are another one of those teams that don’t win pretty but are gritty enough to win ugly games. This year they are 8-2 against the spread including coming within covering of half a point against the 9ers in October. You might never notice Alex Smith on the stat sheet but he limits turnovers and gets the ball to his playmaker Running Back Jamal Charles very well, which I guess would be the definition of a ‘Game Manager’. It’s been noted a number of times but the Seahawks are not the same team away from home, going 1-3 away from Seattle this year. Arrowhead gives the Chiefs a huge home field advantage and is what I believe will put them on top when all is said and done. PICK: Chiefs -1.5
Falcons @ Panthers: Two huge disappointments in the NFC South. Both teams came into the year with high expectations and have been a letdown week after week. Cam Newton has been sacked 30 times this year which is 2nd in the league. It’s well known that Cam is slow to get rid of the ball but I think it lands largely on the fact of their O-Line which has been abysmal this year. Although the Falcons haven’t been much better, I have watched this Panthers team too many times to know that there are too many holes and not enough playmakers. I’ll take the points. PICK: Falcons +1.5
Bengals @ Saints: I’d first of all like to apologize to the readers of this for the misguided information given by ‘Trill Will’ last week in his pick for the Bengals to cover against the Browns. What I forgot to realize before asking for his pick was the fact that William is from the Cincinnati area and therefore was biased in his picking of Andy “The Big Red Machine” Dalton and the Bengals. This type of mistake will not occur again and this week the bonus Thursday night pick will be done with someone significantly less delusional. With that said, the spread in this game is Saints -7.5 because of a total distrust in the Bengals after weeks past, what also should be noticed is the diminishing play of Drew Brees who currently ranks 8th in Total QBR in front of none other, than Eli Manning. This to me looks like a trap play, I don’t think the Bengals are as bad as they’ve shown and don’t think the Saints are as good as the public perceives. Gio Bernard isn’t expect to play this weekend so I’d pass. PICK: Pass
Bucs @ Redskins: Rather than watching this JV football game maybe throw on the NASCAR Sprint Cup Championships for the Ford Ecoboost 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway. According to the internet Denny Hamlin is in first and I have no idea what he needs to do to actually win the Cup but maybe you can figure it out. PICK: Joey Logano*
*Note: Writer has never actually watched a NASCAR race and pick is based solely off the fact that he likes his last name.
Broncos @ Rams: Another let down game for the Rams last week, as they had the W right in their sights in the 4th Quarter let it slip away and ended up somehow losing by 17. The Broncos continued to roll last week, taking it to the Raiders, much like a Mac Truck smashing head on into a Fiat. There are no surprises with this Broncos team, their offense is on fire and their defense has stepped up all year minus a hiccup in Foxboro two weeks ago. Put Peyton in a dome and he can do some pretty special things, I think the Broncos run away with it early and the Rams score some garbage time points to take the over. PICK: Over/48.5
49ers @ Giants: Colin Kaepernick perplexes me. I’ve watched almost every snap he’s played this year and I can’t for the life of me figure out why he can’t be, what ESPN refers to as ‘Elite.’ He has an absolute cannon attached to his shoulder and doesn’t even use proper-mechanics. He runs like a gazelle, and that is not hyperbole he genuinely looks like a gazelle when he’s running. Other than a backwards hat, tattoos and Beats headphones which some people seem to have a problem with he looks like he’s got a decent head on his shoulders. But for some reason he has not figured it out, he has been a full time starter for nearly 2.5 years now and although he shows flashes of brilliance, I don’t know if he can be trusted to lead your team. I like Kaep, I root for Kaep, but I wouldn’t trust him to man the helm of my team nor do I want my money dependent on his performance. PICK: Giants +3.5
Raiders @ Chargers: Call your parents, they don’t hear from you nearly enough and will be a far better use of your time than watching this game for three hours.
Lions @ Cardinals: Winner of this game takes sole possession of the NFC, which if you would have told me at the beginning of the year was the case I would’ve kissed you on the mouth. Both teams have been led by their defenses all year, with the injuries to Carson Palmer, Drew Stanton has come in and done a very nice job for the Cardinals. But it all starts on D. The Lions lead the league in defense ranking first in both yards and points allowed. The Cardinals have done it in a different way, picking off opposing quarterbacks a league leading 14 times, two of which were pick sixes and 5 fumble recoveries. Although turnovers are without question one of the most game changing plays in football, it is not always indicative of a good defense. Don’t get me wrong, the Cardinals have one the elite secondary’s in all of football but turnovers and more specifically defensive touchdowns seem to even out in the end. Give me the defense that week in and week out gets you sacks, stops the run and can get 3 and outs on a regular basis every time. Although Drew Stanton has proved to be an adequate starting QB thus far, he has yet to face this Lions D. I think the Lions go into Glendale and get a big W. Pick: Lions -2
Patriots @ Colts: With all the great games on the Week 11 slate, I believe this is the most anticipated. So many storylines for the SNF hosts Cris Collinsworth and Al Michaels to beat to death. ‘Brady vs. Luck’, “Old School vs. New School’, ‘Brady vs. Manning’s Protégé’, ‘Redemption of 2013 playoffs for Luck.’ But if were being perfectly honest, I’m just as excited to see what happens. This is by no means the passing of the torch from one great to the next, mostly because I think Brady has a few good years left. Mostly it’s because Luck has taken such a step forward this year that I want to see how he stacks up. Sure this was expected from him, but rarely do these phenoms live up to the hype and I think he’s doing it faster than most predicted. The Pats have been rolling but given the fact that it’s in Indy, in a primetime slot, I think that place is going to be electric because know one hates Bellichick and Brady more than Colts fans. The public is pretty high on New England right now which usually means it’s a good time to fade them. PICK: Colts +3
Steelers @ Titans: Neither of these teams deserves any attention towards them after their showings last week. Although this game is featuring ‘The Battle of the Bergers’, with QB Zach Mettenberger and Ben Roethlisberger, if you’re in to that sort of thing.
BONUS THURSDAY NIGHT PICK: With the departure of last week’s Thursday Night guest pick, we have brought in a new less-biased picker. Without further ado, from my longtime friend Austin Shapiro, THE THURSDAY NIGHT SHAP ATTACK SPECIAL:
You know that show you’ll watch just because it’s on? For me that show is Big Bang Theory. I’m never too excited to watch but tune into whatever channel is currently playing 10 episodes in a row and I’ll plop down on the couch for hours. Big Bang Theory is the television equivalent of Miami-Buffalo. There’s nothing outwardly enjoyable about it but I’ll waste three hours watching it just for the occasional “Bazinga!” from Sheldon or 40 yard read option run from Ryan Tannehill. I’ll take under 41.5 points and over 1.5 Wolowitz masturbation jokes.
Hunter’s Record To Date: 7-5
