Again from our resident Gambling Correspondent Hunter Lyons, we have our week 10 NFL Gambling Picks.
Week 9 in the NFL offered a few surprises and some that came in just how Vegas predicted, a fairly typical week around Vegas. You had your games that hit right around the number set, with CIN and JAX pushing, hitting the -10 number set before the game, as well as the CLE/TB and NYJ/KC games coming down to final drives to decide the winner. But like any week, there are always surprises. I can’t imagine there were very many people that saw Miami blowing out San Diego or the Pats putting it to the Broncos like they did, but that as they say, is why they play the game. Vegas sets lines as objectively as possible, based only on statistics and predicting future outcomes from past performances. But football is a subjective game, there are no mathematical certitudes, they are grown men playing a game and unforeseen variables occur every week. Regardless of which side you are on, whether it’s the sports books setting the line or the public who bets against those odds, all you’re really trying to do is get whatever small advantage you can. You’ll have your bad weeks where you’re not seeing the ball, as well as the weeks where everything is clicking. You’re only real goal as a gambler is to have more of the latter than the former. This isn’t like being a head NFL Coach where you need to win 65% of your games to keep a job, week to week gambling is a war of attrition and if you can hover around 54%, you can be very successful. With that said, here are my Week 10 picks. Good luck to all.
Dolphins @ Lions
Maybe the most exciting game of the weekend, or atleast the one with the most playoff implications. Vegas opened the line Monday morning at -2 and the public moved it to -3, I feel this will be around where it stays. By having the line at Lions -3 the line essentially means that on a neutral field, the Dolphins and Lions would be a pick ’em, meaning in the eyes of Vegas these teams are even. Both Detroit and Miami have been lead to their impressive records on the shoulders of their impressive D’s, ranking 1st and 3rd in Total Defense in the NFL, respectively. Even with the Lions impressive W-L record this year they haven’t done as well in Vegas. Without Calvin Johnson the Lions have pulled off two last minute victories although neither covered the spread. The public views Detroit in high regard because of the number of fantasy players it hoists. Whereas Miami isn’t as sexy on paper, even with running back Lamar Miller having a breakout year and Ryan Tannehill coming off the best performance of his young career. With that said, after coming off the Bye and the return of Calvin Johnson and at least one of their stud TE’s back, I think the Lions get back to the high potent offense that we’re used to seeing. PICK: Lions -3
Chiefs @ Bills
The game with what I think has the most value for the week. The game opened up as the Chiefs -1, but the public doesn’t view the Bills as anything more than a pretender. On the other hand, ‘The Sharps’ (Professional gamblers who push lines up and down along with the public) are high on the Bills. The Bills getting points especially with the type of home field advantage they have makes for great value. And for all you Kyle Orton haters out there how about the fact that since he took over for EJ Manuel four games ago he’s averaged 288 passing yards to go along with his 9 TD’s and only 3 picks, against quality defenses nonetheless. Not to mention that Sammy Watkins living up to the hype, though he didn’t practice today with a groin injury, I like the Bills to cover. PICK: Bills -2
49ers @ Saints
Jim Harbaugh continues to purposely sabotage the 49ers season by shutting the lights off in the Superdome for the second time in two years. When the lights finally come back on, Harbaugh is nowhere to be found and the only trace of him is his headset and weird necklace thing he keeps that marker on. Later it will be found out that Harbaugh left the stadium and hoped in the back of my truck and in true action-movie-getaway fashion burned rubber out of New Orleans down Bourbon St. We road trip to Ann Arbor, making stops in Nashville to see the Grand Ole Opry and Cincinnati where Jimmy and I get on a heater on a Riverboat Craps game. Jimmy H lays low at my house til the end of the season and is named head coach of U of M at the conclusion of the OSU games, from their he goes on an unprecedented 7-year national championship run. Years later they’ll do a 30 for 30 called ‘HarBoys’ or ‘Ann Arbaugh’ directed by me and the guy that did ‘Bo Knows’ and it will be sweet. (From the mind of deranged Michigan fan.) PICK: Saints -5
Steelers @ Jets
Pittsburgh is coming off an impressive three-game winning streak, covering in all three games against the Ravens, Colts and Texans, teams that are all still in the playoff hunt. On the other hand, the Jets have quickly spiraled out of control and it looks as though the Rex Ryan regime is finally coming to an end in East Rutherford. Undisciplined, with few playmakers and a QB that is far past his prime, I don’t see it getting any better for the Jets this weekend. They’re running into a buzz saw with Pittsburgh this week and although the Jets are getting 5 points at home, I don’t see this one being close. PICK: Steelers -5
Falcons @ Bucs
Dumpster fire of the NFC South, don’t bet this. If this happens to be the only game you get, instead watch the underrated sci-fi action pic ‘Snowpiercer’. 10/10 from Chris Evans, per usual.
Broncos @ Raiders
Didn’t look up the number don’t much care. I’ll take the Broncos to cover the Raiders at any number and in any sport really. Peyton hasn’t fully grasped the idea of running out the clock going to the ground game and that’s why he’s a favorite of gamblers and fantasy football owners everywhere. PICK: Broncos–(insert number)
Rams @ Cardinals
Maybe the surprise team of the year in the NFL is the Cardinals. Through Week 9 Arizona sits atop the tough NFC West and the NFL at 7-1. The Rams are coming off a surprise victory on a last minute, goal line fumble, come into Glendale with a head of steam and confidence behind their stout D-Line that racked up 8 sacks last week. Arizona is on a staggering 8-2 run against the spread dating back to the end of last year and has done so without a number of key pieces on D. The Rams are real hit or miss, going 5-5 in their last 10 against the spread. When the Rams cover, they not only cover but usually win the game, including W’s against heavily favored Seattle and San Francisco. But when the Rams lose, they really make it an art form, losing games this year by both 28 and 27. I think the Rams will be coming off a high after their big win last week and their QB play by Rookie Austin Davis could finally catch up with their W-L record. Arizona knows how important this division game is with it being only a matter of time before SF and Seattle get healthy and back to what was expected from them at the beginning of the year, and everyone knows just how important home-field advantage is in the NFC West throughout the playoffs. Cardinals cover. PICK: Cardinals -7
Cowboys @ Jaguars
I know the NFL’s plan is to make American Futbol on a more global stage, but sending the University of Jacksonville Jaguars to London will not help. Pair that with the fact that the opposing quarterback could possibly be Brandon Weeden, could make for an eye sore of epic proportions. The final line on this game will be set right before gametime. I’d stay away either way.
Giants @ Seahawks
Still not quite sure what to make of these two teams. At times both have showed flashes of brilliance and at other times leave you scratching your head. The Seahawks jumped out to an early lead against the 0-7 Raiders last week at home and looked like they would run away with it especially with how physical of team the Seahawks are. But they just let them hang around the whole game and although they won, the Raiders made it interesting and ended up covering. The Giants have been embarrassed two out of the last three weeks and show no real sign of improvement. Pair that with their star WR being out for the year and the rest of the team struggling to catch the most simple of passes, it could make for a long rest of the season for the teams out of MetLife Stadium. Neither the Seahawks nor Giants have covered their last 3 games. With that said, from what I’ve seen that famous 12th Man they have in Seattle never left the Super Bowl parade and isn’t nearly as big of an advantage as it’s perceived. I’ll take the points and a big game from Odell Beckham Jr. PICK: Giants +9
Bears @ Packers
Both teams are coming off a Bye and the line opens at -7. These two teams started out the season both with aspirations of an NFC North Title. Since then the teams have gone in polar opposite directions. After a rough start, the Packers rattled off three impressive wins before dropping one to the Saints on the road. The Bye week offered them some time to get their starters healthy, most specifically their All-Pro QB Aaron Rodgers. On the other end of the spectrum, rising tension and players fighting in the Bears locker room after back to back blowout losses shows that the Bye week couldn’t have come at a better time for people to take a step back before and reevaluate before the second half of their season began. As far as the line, I’m surprised with the line starting this low and expect it to get to 8 or maybe 8.5 by week end. Although it is a rivalry game, the Pack are 2-0-1 against the spread at home this year and 4-0-1 against the spread as a favorite. Meaning, when the Packers win, they win big. I’d jump on Pack -7 while you can because the line is sure to go up. PICK: Packers -7
Titans @ Ravens
Nothing about this game is appealing to me. This game might be the best time to take your girlfriend to a pumpkin patch or whatever normal humans do on Sundays.
Panthers @ Eagles
Such a disappointment for the Panthers this year and more specifically Cam Newton, even after starting the year with a rib injury he has grossly underperformed and has left this writer sobbing uncontrollably many a Sunday night because of his lackluster fantasy performance, but I digress. Vegas opened the line at Eagles -5.5 and has hovered around that since, that just goes to show what their thoughts are on Mark Sanchez even after his 2 TD performance in relief of the injured Nick Foles. An even bigger loss for the Eagles might bet heir rock on Defense, linebacker Demeco Ryans who is out for the year with an ACL tear. The depleted Eagles and the public getting burned by the Panthers so many times this year gives these points a lot of value. PICK: Panthers +6
BONUS:
Thursday Night Football aficionado Will Glass says Thursday Night action is all about the swag. “Bengals have way more swag.” Bengals getting back AJ Green at 100% will be a big spark for Cincy and as Trill Will says, “AJ got swag.” PICK: Bengals -6
Week 9 Record: 3-0
