Here’s The Win Probability For UM’s Remaining Games/Making B1G Championship Game

According to the S&P+ model (which factors efficiency, explosiveness, field position, and finishing drives), the chances of Michigan beating Wisconsin is 28% and Ohio State 31%:

Michigan's S&P+ Win Probabilities

at Wisconsin: 28%
Ohio State: 31%

Odds to finish 8-4: 49.7%
Odds to finish 9-3: 41.6%
Odds to finish 10-2: 8.7%

50/50 U-M earns one more win.

— Drew Hallett (@DrewCHallett) November 13, 2017

On the chances to make it to the Big Ten Championship game:

Michigan's odds to go 10-2: 8.7%
PSU's odds to lose a game: 23.5%
MSU's odds to lose a game: 47.9%

Michigan's odds to win B1G East and advance to B1GCG: 1.0% https://t.co/fsIodY2h4S

— Drew Hallett (@DrewCHallett) November 13, 2017